Overview
What this fictional book is worth, what the rules would do this month, and how they are doing against the S&P 500 and inflation. The detail is one tab away: Performance for the record, Research for the evidence, Advice for the working.
Against the benchmark — and against inflation
Performance
How this book’s current mix would have done on the synthetic price history, and the textbook measures. The Overview keeps only today and the benchmark.
Growth of €100
Calendar years
Textbook risk measures
Standard textbook yardsticks, computed with the usual formulas and named as the textbooks name them, for this book beside the S&P 500 line it holds. Each row says which topic it belongs to.
Working towards
Research
The evidence behind the advice: what the research views did to expected returns, the committee, and the theme notes. Live-data panels from the full application (news, analyst targets, betting markets, filings) are not part of the demo.
The rate world this book lives in
What the research did to the expected returns
Expected returns start at CAPM — beta, net of charges and the wrapper’s tax — which can see risk, correlation and cost and no edge in any company. The accounts, the insider filings and the valuation gap are blended in as Black-Litterman views: each sized by the published effect, halved because premia shrink after publication, and shrunk further towards this book’s own scored record as it accumulates. Low confidence on purpose.
Fact find
What the money is for, and what it is in. The goals first — how close each one is and what it would take to arrive — then the holdings themselves: edit a value, drop a line, or add any fund from the universe. The sheet stays the source of truth — “reset to sheet” brings it back. Nothing here is written to Google.
Goals — what the money is for
Each goal names what it costs, when it is wanted and which books fund it. Progress is the live value of those books, in priority order — a euro already claimed by the deposit cannot also be the car. Where a goal needs more than the target mix expects to earn, the monthly contribution that would work is shown instead of a hopeful rate.
Read-only in the demo: deposits cannot be recorded.
Add or change a goal
The book
Concentration
Correlation between your largest positions
Dark means the pair moves together. Two holdings above 0.85 are close to one position with two lines in the sheet.
Income
Against the funds
Every row measured the same way, over the dates all of them traded. Comparing a fund's five years against your book's shorter history would be two different questions printed in one table.
Risk and return
Up is more return, right is more risk. Anything up and to the left of your book did better for less.
Comparison table
What buying one would do
Mixing curve
Each point is a mix, from all-book on one end to all-fund on the other. The curve bends because the two are not perfectly correlated — that bend is the diversification, and it is free.
Where the money actually is
Funds are exploded through their index's published country weights, so an ETF does not sit in one “Unknown” block bigger than everything else.
Country exposure
By country
By sector
Sector exposure
Currency exposure
Where the risk actually sits
Weight says how much you own. Risk share says how much of the book's movement each position is responsible for — they come apart fast once anything is concentrated or volatile.
Simulate
Six thousand paths, block-bootstrapped from the book's own daily returns so its fat tails survive into the fan rather than being smoothed into a normal curve. Sampling in 21-day blocks keeps volatility clustering intact — calm and violent stretches stay lumpy instead of averaging out.
Range of outcomes
Where you land
The box is the middle half of outcomes, the whiskers the 5th and 95th percentile. Read the width, not the middle.
At the horizon
Transactions
The fictional trade history behind this book, generated from a seed. The full application records trades in an append-only ledger; the demo is read-only.
Record a trade
Ledger
Advice
This month’s orders first, then the mix they are walking towards, then the house rules and costs it stands on. The research behind it is on the Research tab; the four theories, hedges, tax and derivatives are folded underneath for checking.
The committee — eight views, one decision
Where the money leaks
Nobody can promise a better return — the market’s next ten years are not in this site. What is knowable to the euro is what this book gives away before the market does anything: commission, the wrapper’s tax, fund charges, idle cash, a measured factor tilt and the record of the activity itself. A euro not paid is a euro, with certainty; a euro of hoped-for alpha has a standard error the size of the euro. Ranked worst first.
Show the working — every panel behind the answer
The safe sleeve — money with a date on it
Dates already on the calendar
Before you place anything — unreconciled positions
Orders
What to place, at what price, by when. Limits are set from each holding's own daily volatility — not a forecast of direction, just the observation that a stock moving 2% a day usually trades 1% better than it does right now, and that waiting is free if the wait has an expiry.
Options and CFDs — the specific contract, if you want one
Every optionable holding, priced across five expiries and six strikes, ranked by what each contributes to compound growth at its own Kelly size — not by expected return, which always crowns whichever lottery ticket is furthest out of the money. Premiums are modelled, never quoted.
CFDs — what the leverage costs before it is right about anything
Why these funds — check the working
Every input that put a fund in the list, so the choice can be checked instead of trusted. Nothing here is sponsored, and no provider pays anything either way.
Dates that impose themselves
What actually moves the number
Ranked in euro over ten years, not in percent. Allocation is the part that feels like investing and, at this pot size, close to the least important lever available.
What a target actually requires
What compounds fastest
Money compounds, so what gets maximised is expected log return: growth ≈ return − volatility²∕2. That second term is why a lower-returning mix can leave you richer, and why past a point more risk makes you poorer.
Hedges that hold up when it matters
Ranked by what each does to compounding at its own best size — not by how much volatility it removes, because a hedge that costs more return than the variance it saves makes you poorer slowly. The last two columns are the honest test: correlation on ordinary days against correlation on your worst 10%.
How to get there
The trades that move today's book toward the default mix — your Buy / Hold / Sell calls on the companies, funds for the rest — cut to what one month can actually do given your cash and free sells. Trend does not change the destination — it only decides which trades go first.
Risk surfaces
Two shapes a flat chart cannot show. The blend surface sweeps every mix of two funds so you can see the whole trade-off at once instead of reading it off eighteen table rows. The correlation surface plots each holding's correlation to the rest of the book through time — because diversification is not a number, it is a number that moves, and it moves most at exactly the moment you were relying on it. Drag to rotate, scroll to zoom.
Your book against the universe
Mortgage deposit
Money with a deadline is a different kind of money. Its job is to be intact and available on the date, not to compound — so it sits outside the investable book, out of every weight and risk figure, and nothing here will ever suggest investing it.
Pension
Kept apart from the tradable books on purpose. The money is not accessible, most scheme funds have no market ticker, and folding the pot into your weights would inflate every cap and budget that depends on the tradable total. It still counts towards what you have.
Where it gets to
Contributions in
Fund split
Explore a stock
Look up any instrument in the synthetic panel — a holding or a fund — and see what owning it would do to this book. Everything here is measured from the same return matrix as the rest of the page.
Protection
Every other tab works on the money you have. This one works on the money you have not earned yet — which at 23 and 22 is roughly a hundred times larger, is attached to two bodies, and is the half nobody insures. The order these products belong in is not the order they are sold in, and the reason is arithmetic rather than opinion.
What this adds up to
Escape velocity
Every other tab answers how this money should be arranged. This one answers whether the arrangement can possibly get you where you said you were going — and if not, what can. It is the least flattering page here on purpose: a target is the one input nobody sanity-checks, and a goal that is merely ambitious looks identical to one that is arithmetically impossible until the required rate is written next to the best records that exist.
What the target requires
What each rate in history would cost you
Every row is a real track record, net of fees, over the stretch named. The columns are the two honest ways to close a gap: put more in, or wait longer.
Where the money actually comes from
Backing companies — the power law, priced
The first route with a genuinely fat right tail. Outcome shape taken from Correlation Ventures' study of 21,000 investments 2004–2013 and 27,000 more 2009–2018 — not from a pitch deck.
Owning one — where the billionaires actually come from
Two thirds of billionaire wealth is equity in a business the person built or controls. The difference between this panel and the one above is not courage or conviction; it is the ownership percentage.
Leverage, and where it stops working
The obvious shortcut, and the reason it is not one. Borrowing multiplies the return in proportion and the drag by the square, so growth turns over at a point this book's own numbers decide.
Options — the only convex instrument on this page
Priced with Black–Scholes at each line's own realised volatility, then re-read under its CAPM drift rather than the risk-neutral one the pricing model assumes. The gap between those two is the whole argument.
The run you would have to win
No single option, at any strike anyone will sell you, covers the multiple the target needs. So it has to be a sequence — and the probability of a sequence is the product.
Going short
Leveraged products and what daily rebalancing costs
Every shortcut, with how sure the answer is
The verdict
Stress
Synthetic episodes modelled on past market stresses, rather than a forecast of what could happen. Episodes appear only where your book's own history reaches them — nothing is spliced in from an index to fill a gap.